Decision Experiment

Decision-Making Experiment: Choices between Gambles

This is a study of decision making involving important decisions with large prizes. Although you can't win or lose money in this study, you should imagine that these decisions are for real, and make the same decisions that you would if very large, real stakes were involved.

Email address:
We will notify you by email if you are a winner.
Country:
Age: You must be over 18 years to participate.
Are you Male or Female?
          Female
      OR
          Male

Education (in years).  
  If you are a college graduate, put 16.
  If you have a Ph.D., put 20.
Education:  Years.

Now, look at the first choice, No. 1, below.   Would you rather play: 
        A: fifty red marbles to win $1,000,000 and fifty white marbles to win $2 ($2 means just "two dollars"), 
OR
        B: fifty blue marbles to win $350,000 and fifty green marbles to win $250,000.

Think of probability as the number of marbles in one color in an urn (container) containing 100 otherwise identical marbles, divided by 100. Gamble A has 50 red marbles and 50 white marbles; if a marble drawn at random from urn A is red, you win $1,000,000 (one million dollars). If a white marble is drawn, you win $2 (two dollars). So, the probability to draw a red marble and win $1,000,000 is .50 and the probability to draw a white marble and get $2 is .50. If someone reaches in urn A, half the time they draw red and win $1,000,000 and half the time they draw white and win $2. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either $2 or $1,000,000. Gamble B's urn has 100 marbles also, but 50 of them are blue, winning $350,000, and 50 of them are green and win $250,000. Urn B thus guarantees at least $250,000, but the most you can win is $350,000. Some will prefer A and others will prefer B. To mark your choice, click the button next to A or B. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice. There are always 100 marbles in each urn, but the number of each color and their prizes for each color differ.

For each choice below, click the button beside the gamble you would rather play, if you really faced these decisions.

1. Which do you choose? A: 50 red marbles to win $1,000,000 50 white marbles to win $2 OR B: 50 blue marbles to win $350,000 50 green marbles to win $250,000 2. Which do you choose? C: 50 red marbles to win $1,000,000 50 white marbles to win $2 OR D: 50 green marbles to win $450,000 50 blue marbles to win $350,000 3. Which do you choose? E: 20 red marbles to win $1,000,000 30 blue marbles to win $960,000 50 white marbles to win $500,000 OR F: 20 red marbles to win $1,000,000 30 green marbles to win $620,000 50 white marbles to win $500,000 4. Which do you choose? G: 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 50 green marbles to win $120,000 40 white marbles to win $20 OR H: 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 50 blue marbles to win $960,000 40 white marbles to win $20 5. Which do you choose? I: 90 red marbles to win $960,000 05 blue marbles to win $140,000 05 white marbles to win $120,000 OR J: 85 red marbles to win $960,000 05 blue marbles to win $900,000 10 white marbles to win $120,000 6. Which do you choose? K: 10 red marbles to win $2,000,000 90 white marbles to win $2 OR L: 11 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 89 white marbles to win $2 7. Which do you choose? M: 91 red marbles to win $1,100,000 03 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 06 white marbles to win $60,000 OR N: 94 black marbles to win $1,100,000 03 yellow marbles to win $80,000 03 purple marbles to win $60,000 8. Which do you choose? O: 85 red marbles to win $1,000,000 15 blue marbles to win $500,000 OR P: 95 red marbles to win $1,000,000 05 white marbles to win $11 9. Which do you choose? Q: 10 red marbles to win $2,000,000 01 white marbles to win $2 89 white marbles to win $2 OR R: 10 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 01 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 89 white marbles to win $2 10. Which do you choose? S: 15 blue marbles to win $500,000 85 white marbles to win $11 OR T: 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 90 white marbles to win $11 11. Which do you choose? U: 85 red marbles to win $960,000 05 blue marbles to win $960,000 05 green marbles to win $140,000 05 white marbles to win $120,000 OR V: 85 red marbles to win $960,000 05 blue marbles to win $900,000 05 green marbles to win $120,000 05 white marbles to win $120,000 12. Which do you choose? W: 10 red marbles to win $2,000,000 89 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 01 white marble to win $2 OR X: sure to win $1,000,000 (100 blue to win) 13. Which do you choose? Y: 91 red marbles to win $1,100,000 03 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 03 green marbles to win $60,000 03 white marbles to win $60,000 OR Z: 91 black marbles to win $1,100,000 03 pink marbles to win $1,100,000 03 yellow marbles to win $80,000 03 purple marbles to win $60,000 14. Which do you choose? a: 85 red marbles to win $1,000,000 10 blue marbles to win $500,000 05 blue marbles to win $500,000 OR b: 85 red marbles to win $1,000,000 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 05 white marbles to win $11 15. Which do you choose? c: 90 red marbles to win $960,000 05 yellow marbles to win $140,000 05 pink marbles to win $120,000 OR d: 85 black marbles to win $960,000 05 blue marbles to win $900,000 10 white marbles to win $120,000 16. Which do you choose? e: 89 red marbles to win $2,000,000 10 red marbles to win $2,000,000 01 white marble to win $2 OR f: 89 red marbles to win $2,000,000 10 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 01 blue marble to win $1,000,000 17. Which do you choose? g: 10 blue marbles to win $500,000 05 blue marbles to win $500,000 85 white marbles to win $11 OR h: 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 05 white marbles to win $11 85 white marbles to win $11 18. Which do you choose? i: 91 red marbles to win $1,100,000 03 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 06 white marbles to win $60,000 OR j: 94 red marbles to win $1,100,000 03 blue marbles to win $80,000 03 white marbles to win $60,000 19. Which do you choose? k: 99 red marbles to win $2,000,000 01 white marble to win $2 OR l: 89 red marbles to win $2,000,000 11 blue marbles to win $1,000,000 20. Which do you choose? m: 10 blue marbles to win $500,000 85 blue marbles to win $500,000 05 blue marbles to win $500,000 (i.e., $500,000 for sure) OR n: 10 red marbles to win $1,000,000 85 blue marbles to win $500,000 05 white marbles to win $11 ----------- 21. Have you ever read a scientific paper (i.e., a journal article or book) on the theory of decision making or on the psychology of decision making? No. Never. OR Yes, I have.

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