This is a study of decision making in which you might win some money, if you are lucky.
Look at the choice displayed below. Suppose you are given a gift of $100, but you are required to either play the gamble or take a sure thing. Would you rather choose the gamble or the sure thing?
Gamble: 50 black marbles to win $50 50 red marbles to lose $50 OR Sure thing: lose $10 for sure
Think of probability as the number of marbles of one color in an urn (container) containing 100 otherwise identical marbles, divided by 100. The urn has 50 black marbles and 50 red marbles; if a marble drawn at random from the Gamble is black, you win $50. If a red marble is drawn, you lose $50. So, the probability to draw a black marble and win $50 is .50 and the probability to draw a red marble and lose $50 is .50. If someone takes the Gamble, half the time they draw black and win $50 and half the time they draw red and lose $50. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either lose $50 or win $50. The sure thing is to lose $10. The sure thing thus guarantees the most you can lose is $10. Because you receive a gift of $100, the Second Gamble guarantees that the least you will end up with is $90 (i.e., $100 minus $10), whereas in the Gamble you might lose $50 and end up with $50 (i.e., $100 minus $50). But the Gamble gives you a chance to end up with $150, since you might win another $50 and keep the gift of $100.
Some people will prefer the Gamble and others will prefer the Sure Thing. To mark your choice, click one of the buttons below for the Gamble or Sure thing. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button for your choice.
Any one of the 27 choices might be the one you
get to play, so choose carefully. Winners will be notified by email.