Decision-Making Experiment: Choices between Gambles

This is a study of decision making in which you can gamble without risk and perhaps even win some money, if you are lucky. At the same time, your participation in this study can help scientists in the Decision Research Center learn more about how people make choices. Decide first if you want to participate. You must be at least 18, and you may participate only once. Scroll down and look over the questionnaire. It usually takes about 5 minutes.

Email address:
We will notify you by email if you are a winner.
Country:
Age: You must be over 18 years to participate.
Are you Male or Female?
          Female
      OR
          Male

Education (in years).  
  If you are a college graduate, put 16.
  If you have a Ph.D., put 20.
Education:  Years.

Now, look at the first choice, No. 1, below.   Would you rather play: 
        A: fifty red marbles to win $100 and fifty white marbles to win $0 (nothing), 
OR
        B: fifty blue marbles to win $35 and fifty green marbles to win $25.

Think of probability as the number of marbles in one color in an urn (container) containing 100 otherwise identical marbles, divided by 100. Gamble A has 50 red marbles and 50 white marbles; if a marble drawn at random from urn A is red, you win $100. If a white marble is drawn, you win $0. So, the probability to draw a red marble and win $100 is .50 and the probability to draw a white marble and get $0 is .50. If someone reaches in urn A, half the time they draw red and win $100 and half the time they draw white and win $0. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either $0 or $100. Gamble B's urn has 100 marbles also, but 50 of them are blue, winning $35, and 50 of them are green and win $25. Urn B thus guarantees at least $25, but the most you can win is $35. Some will prefer A and others will prefer B. To mark your choice, click the button next to A or B. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice. There are always 100 marbles in each urn, but the number of each color and their prizes for each color differ.

For each choice below, click the button beside the gamble you would rather play. On June 21, 2004, after people have finished their choices, three people will be selected randomly to play one gamble for real money. One trial will be selected randomly from the 20 trials, and if you were the lucky person, you will get to play the gamble you chose on the trial selected. You might win as much as $110. Any one of the 20 choices might be the one you get to play, so choose carefully. Winners will be notified by email. Offer void where prohibited by law. 

1. Which do you choose?
          A: 50 red marbles to win $100
                50 white marbles to win $0
      OR
          B: 50 blue marbles to win $35
                50 green marbles to win $25

2. Which do you choose?
          C: 50 red marbles to win $100
                50 white marbles to win $0
      OR
          D: 50 green marbles to win $45
                50 blue marbles to win $35
                
3. Which do you choose?
          E: 20 red marbles to win $100
                30 blue marbles to win $96
                50 white marbles to win $50
      OR
          F: 20 red marbles to win $100
                30 green marbles to win $62
                50 white marbles to win $50

4. Which do you choose?
          G: 10 red marbles to win $108
                50 green marbles to win $12
                40 white marbles to win $2
      OR
          H: 10 red marbles to win $108
                50 blue marbles to win $96
                40 white marbles to win $2

5. Which do you choose?
          I: 90 red marbles to win $96
                05 blue marbles to win $14
                05 white marbles to win $12
      OR
          J: 85 red marbles to win $96
                05 blue marbles to win $90
                10 white marbles to win $12

6. Which do you choose?
          K: 10 black marbles to win $44
                10 purple marbles to win $40
                80 pink marbles to win $2
      OR
          L: 10 red marbles to win $98
                10 green marbles to win $10
                80 white marbles to win $2

7. Which do you choose?
          M: 85 red marbles to win $90
                05 blue marbles to win $80
                10 white marbles to win $10
      OR
          N: 90 black marbles to win $97
                05 yellow marbles to win $15
                05 purple marbles to win $13

8. Which do you choose?
          O: 20 black marbles to win $44
                80 yellow marbles to win $10
      OR
          P: 10 red marbles to win $98
                90 white marbles to win $10

9. Which do you choose?
          Q: 80 red marbles to win $98
                20 blue marbles to win $40
      OR
          R: 90 red marbles to win $98
                10 white marbles to win $10

10. Which do you choose?
          S: 80 red marbles to win $110
                10 black marbles to win $44
                10 purple marbles to win $40
      OR
          T: 80 red marbles to win $110
                10 blue marbles to win $98
                10 white marbles to win $10

11. Which do you choose?
          U: 90 red marbles to win $96
                05 blue marbles to win $14
                05 white marbles to win $12
      OR
          V: 85 red marbles to win $85
                05 blue marbles to win $75
                10 white marbles to win $4

12. Which do you choose?
          W: 90 red marbles to win $106
                05 blue marbles to win $96
                05 white marbles to win $12
      OR
          X: 90 red marbles to win $106
                05 blue marbles to win $52
                05 white marbles to win $48

13. Which do you choose?
          Y: 85 red marbles to win $70
                05 blue marbles to win $60
                10 white marbles to win $2
      OR
          Z: 90 black marbles to win $97
                05 yellow marbles to win $15
                05 purple marbles to win $13

14. Which do you choose?
          a: 95 red marbles to win $96
                05 white marbles to win $12
      OR
          b: 90 red marbles to win $96
                10 white marbles to win $48

15. Which do you choose?
          c: 85 red marbles to win $80
                05 blue marbles to win $70
                10 white marbles to win $5
      OR
          d: 90 black marbles to win $97
                05 yellow marbles to win $15
                05 purple marbles to win $13

16. Which do you choose?
          e: 100 red marbles to win $3 ($3 for sure)

      OR
          f: 01 red marbles to win $100
                99 white marbles to win $0

17. Which do you choose?
          g: 05 red marbles to win $96
                05 blue marbles to win $12
                90 white marbles to win $3
      OR
          h: 05 red marbles to win $52
                05 blue marbles to win $48
                90 white marbles to win $3

18. Which do you choose?
          i: 90 red marbles to win $96
                05 blue marbles to win $14
                05 white marbles to win $12

      OR
          j: 85 red marbles to win $90
                05 blue marbles to win $84
                10 white marbles to win $6

19. Which do you choose?
          k: 100 red marbles to win $96 ($96 for sure)

      OR
          l: 99 red marbles to win $100
                01 white marbles to win $0

20. Which do you choose?
          m: 05 red marbles to win $96
                95 white marbles to win $12
      OR
          n: 10 red marbles to win $52
                90 white marbles to win $12
                
21. Which do you choose?
          o: 85 red marbles to win $97
                05 blue marbles to win $91
                10 white marbles to win $13
      OR
          p: 90 black marbles to win $97
                05 yellow marbles to win $15
                05 purple marbles to win $13                 

-----------

22. Have you ever read a scientific paper
(i.e., a journal article or book) on the theory of 
decision making or on the psychology of decision making?

          No. Never.            
      OR
          Yes, I have.


Winners will be notified by email.  If you share an email address, include your 
name in the comments below, so we can identify the winner.
COMMENTS:

Please check to make sure that you have answered all of the Questions.



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since Nov 19, 1998 at 10:30 pm.

12-01-03