### Instructions for Choosing between Gambles Based on Advice

In this experiment you are asked to choose between gambles. Each gamble consists of a glass container (a jar) containing red and white marbles. There are always 100 marbles, but the percentage of red and white will differ from gamble to gamble. One marble will be chosen randomly and blindly from the chosen urn, and if the marble is red, you win \$100, but if the marble is white you get \$0 (nothing). It is in your best interest to choose the urn with the greater percentage of red marbles.

For urn A, you will always be given the exact percentage of red marbles. For urn B, you will receive advice from someone who wants to help you who has estimated the percentage of red marbles in urn B. There are two sources, a friend and an expert:

The friend has no training in estimating percentages, but is trying to help you by giving you an estimate of the percentage of Red in Urn B.

The expert has been trained in estimating percentages by eye. The expert also makes an estimate of Urn B by eye.

These people are both trying to help you, but they do not know the exact percentages; they make their estimates by shaking the jar, looking through the clear glass, and estimating the percentage by eye.

Look at the first trial below, W1. In this case, we know that urn A has exactly 30 red marbles and 70 white ones. The friend, however, thinks that there are 70% red in urn B. If you think there are more than 30% red in the urn B, you should choose urn B. By choosing A, you know that you have exactly 30 out of 100 chances to win. But if the friend is right, there are more than twice as many red marbles in urn B. Some people will choose A and others will choose B.

If you strongly prefer A, click far to the left, and if you strongly prefer B, click far to the right. To indicate intermediate degrees of preference, click along the row of buttons closer to the urn from which you would prefer to choose a marble.

#### Warmup Trials Choosing between Gambles Based on Advice

W1.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

W2.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

W3.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

W4.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

W5.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

1.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

2.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

3.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

4.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

5.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

6.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

7.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

8.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

9.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

10.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

11.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

12.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

13.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

14.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

15.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

16.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

17.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

18.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

19.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

20.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

21.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

22.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

23.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

24.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

25.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

26.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

27.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

28.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

29.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

30.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

31.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

32.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

33.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

34.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

35.
Urn A: Exact count 30% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

36.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

37.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

38.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

39.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

40.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

41.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 10% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

42.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

43.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

44.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

45.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

46.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

47.
Urn A: Exact count 10% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Friend estimates 50% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

48.
Urn A: Exact count 90% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 70% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

49.
Urn A: Exact count 70% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 90% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

50.
Urn A: Exact count 50% Red Marbles
OR
Urn B: Expert estimates 30% Red
Strongly Prefer Urn A Strongly Prefer Urn B

51. What is your age? years.
52. Gender: Are you Male or Female?
Female
Male

53. How many years of Education have you completed? Put 12 for High School Diploma
Put 16 for college diploma (bachelor's degree).
put 20 for doctorate degree (Ph.D., M.D., etc).
Education:
54. Nationality (country of birth):