Optimism/Pessimism Survey

Instructions for Optimism/Pessimism Survey

In this experiment you are asked to choose between gambles. Each gamble consists of a container (an urn) containing red and white marbles. There are always 100 marbles, but the percentage of red and white may differ from gamble to gamble. One marble will be chosen randomly and blindly from the chosen urn, and if the marble is red, you win $100, but if the marble is white you get $0 (nothing). It is in your best interest to choose the urn with the greater percentage of red marbles.

For urn A, you will always be given the exact percentage of red marbles. For urn B, you will receive advice from someone who wants to help you who has estimated the percentage of red marbles in urn B. There are two sources,

The optimist tends to overestimate the number of winning (red) marbles.
The pessimist tends to underestimate the number of winning (red) marbles in the urn.

These people are trying to help you, but they do not know the exact percentages; they make their estimates by shaking the jar, looking through the clear glass, and estimating the percentage by eye.

In each case you decide whether you would rather choose urn A, which has a known percentage of red marbles or from urn B, about which you have estimates of the percentage of winning (red) marbles.

Warmup Trials

1.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

2.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

3.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

4.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

5.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

6.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

7.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

8.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

9.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

10.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

11.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

12.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

13.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

14.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

15.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

16.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

17.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

18.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

19.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

20.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

21.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

22.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

23.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

24.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

25.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

26.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

27.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

28.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

29.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

30.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

31.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

32.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

33.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

34.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

35.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

36.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

37.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

38.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

39.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

40.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

41.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

42.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

43.
Urn A: Has exactly 70% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

44.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

45.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 70% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

46.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

47.
Urn A: Has exactly 50% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 30% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

48.
Urn A: Has exactly 10% red marbles and
Urn B: A pessimist estimates 90% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

49.
Urn A: Has exactly 30% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 10% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

50.
Urn A: Has exactly 90% red marbles and
Urn B: An optimist estimates 50% red marbles.
Strongly prefer Urn A Strongly prefer Urn B

51. How much of an optimist or pessimist do you consider yourself to be?
Very strong pessimist Very strong optimist

52. What is your age? years.

53. Gender: Are you Male or Female?

Female
Male

54. How many years of Education have you completed?
Put 12 for High School Diploma
Put 16 for college diploma (bachelor's degree).
put 20 for doctorate degree (Ph.D., M.D., etc).
Education:

55. Nationality (country of birth):

56. Comments:

Please check your answers. When you are done, push the button below.

Instructions for Optimism/Pessimism Survey

Warmup Trials

Optimism/Pessimism Survey

Thank You!