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Look at Choice No. 1 below. Imagine two containers, each of which holds exactly 100 tickets. The tickets are all identical, but they have different cash prizes printed on them. You get to choose the container from which a ticket will be drawn randomly. You win the amount of money printed on the ticket.

The first gamble in Choice No. 1 has 50 tickets that win $100 and 50 that win $0, so the probability to win $100 is .50 and the probability to get $0 is .50. If someone chooses the First Gamble, half the time they will draw a ticket that pays $0 and half the time they will draw a ticket to win $100. On the average, the expected value (EV) of this gamble is $50, because on average, this gamble pays $50. However, in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize would be either $0 or $100.

The Second Gamble has 100 tickets also, but 50 of these win $25 and 50 of them win $35. The second gamble thus guarantees at least $25, but the most you can win is $35. The expected value (EV) of this alternative is $30.0, but you can receive either $25 or $35.

Some people will prefer the First Gamble and some will prefer the Second Gamble. The first gamble has a higher expected value, but the second gamble guarantees that the least you would win is $25, whereas in the first gamble, you might end up with $0 (nothing). But with the first gamble, you might win $100 whereas the second gamble can win at most $35. That is why some people prefer the first gamble and some prefer the second gamble. To mark your choice, click the button next to Choose First or Choose Second Gamble. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice.

At the end of this semester, after people have finished their choices, three people will be selected randomly to play one gamble for real money. One trial will be selected randomly from all of the trials, and if you were one of these lucky people, you will get to play the gamble you chose on the trial selected. You might win as much as $110. Any one of the choices might be the one you get to play, so choose carefully.

Please check to make sure that you have answered all of the Questions. Scroll up and check that there are no dots next to the numbered questions.

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