This is a study of decision making. Decide first if you want to participate. You must be at least 18, and you may participate only once. Scroll down and look over the questionnaire. Imagine you are gambling with your own money. Please try to imagine that you are making these decisions for real, and risking your own cash.
Look at the first choice, No. W1, below. Suppose you are required to choose one of the following gambles. Would you rather play:
First Gamble: 50 red marbles to lose $50 50 black marbles to win $50 OR Second Gamble: 50 blue marbles to lose $10 50 green marbles to win $5
Think of probability as the number of marbles in one color in an urn (container) containing 100 otherwise identical marbles, divided by 100. The First Gamble has 50 black marbles and 50 red marbles; if a marble drawn at random from the First Gamble is black, you win $50. If a red marble is drawn, you lose $50. So, the probability to draw a black marble and win $50 is .50 and the probability to draw a red marble and lose $50 is .50. If someone takes the First Gamble, half the time they draw black and win $50 and half the time they draw red and lose $50. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either lose $50 or win $50. The Second Gamble's urn has 100 marbles also, but 50 of them are green, winning $5, and 50 of them are blue and lose $10. The Second Gamble thus guarantees the most you can lose is $10, and the best you can do is win $5. The first gamble gives you a chance to win $50, but you risk losing $50.
Some people will prefer the First Gamble and others will prefer the Second. To mark your choice, click one of the buttons below for the First or Second Gamble. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button for your choice. There are always 100 marbles in each urn, but the number of each color and their prizes for each color differ.
For each choice below, click the button beside the gamble you would rather play. Imagine that one of your choices will be played for real, and you will either win or lose, depending on your decisions and chance.
Some decisions will be between gambles that can only lose, and you would rather not choose either one. However, some decisions in life require you to choose the lessor of two bad choices. For example, someone might steal your car, and you might lose the value of the car stolen. Or you might decide to pay for insurance that would pay for your lost car. Either way, you lose, but depending on the price of the insurance, you might decide to buy the insurance or you might decide to take the risk of having your car stolen.
Try to make the best decisions you can, assuming you were really risking your own money.