Decision-Making Experiment: Choices between Gambles

This is a study of decision making in which you can gamble without risk and perhaps even win some money, if you are lucky. At the same time, your participation in this study can help scientists in the Decision Research Center learn more about how people make choices. Decide first if you want to participate. You must be at least 18, and you may participate only once. Scroll down and look over the questionnaire. It usually takes about 5 minutes.

Email address:
We will notify you by email if you are a winner.
Country(e.g., USA, UK, France):
Age: You must be over 18 years to participate.
Are you Male or Female?
          Female
      OR
          Male

Education (in years).  
  If you are a college graduate, put 16.
  If you have a Ph.D., put 20.
Education:  Years.

Now, look at the first choice, No. 1, below. Suppose you are given a gift of 
$50, but you are required to choose one of the following gambles.
Would you rather play: 
        A: 50 red marbles to win $55 and 50 white marbles to lose $45, 
OR
        B: 50 blue marbles to lose $10 and 50 green marbles to lose $20.

Think of probability as the number of marbles in one color in an urn (container) containing 100 otherwise identical marbles, divided by 100. Gamble A has 50 red marbles and 50 white marbles; if a marble drawn at random from urn A is red, you win $55. If a white marble is drawn, you lose $45. So, the probability to draw a red marble and win $55 is .50 and the probability to draw a white marble and lose $45 is .50. If someone reaches in urn A, half the time they draw red and win $55 and half the time they draw white and lose $45. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the prize will be either lose $45 or win $55. Gamble B's urn has 100 marbles also, but 50 of them are blue, losing $10, and 50 of them are green and lose $20. Urn B thus guarantees the most you can lose is $20, and the best you can do is lose $10. Because you receive a gift of $50, B guarantees that the least you will end up with is $30 (i.e., $50 minus $20), whereas in A you might lose $45 and end up with only $5 (i.e., $50 minus $45). But A gives you a chance to end up with $105, since you keep the $50 and might win another $55.

Some people will prefer A and others will prefer B. To mark your choice, click the button next to A or B. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice. There are always 100 marbles in each urn, but the number of each color and their prizes for each color differ.

For each choice below, click the button beside the gamble you would rather play. On Sept. 21, 2004, after people have finished their choices, three people will be selected randomly to play one gamble for real money. Each person selected will receive a gift of $50 plus the result of one gamble. One trial will be selected randomly from the 20 trials, and if you were one of the lucky people, you will get to play the gamble you chose on the trial selected. If the gamble you chose wins, the winnings will be added to your $50, and if it loses, the loss will be subtracted from your $50. In any case, you cannot lose your own money, but you might win as much as $115. Any one of the 20 choices might be the one you get to play, so choose carefully. Winners will be notified by email. Offer void where prohibited by law. 

1. Which do you choose?
          A: 50 red marbles to win $55
                50 white marbles to lose $45
      OR
          B: 50 blue marbles to lose $10
                50 green marbles to lose $20

2. Which do you choose?
          C: 50 red marbles to win $55
                50 white marbles to lose $45
      OR
          D: 50 green marbles to win $0
                50 blue marbles to lose $10
                
3. Which do you choose?
          E: 20 red marbles to win $55
                30 blue marbles to win $51
                50 white marbles to win $5
      OR
          F: 20 red marbles to win $55
                30 green marbles to win $17
                50 white marbles to win $5

4. Which do you choose?
          G: 10 red marbles to win $63
                50 green marbles to lose $33
                40 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          H: 10 red marbles to win $63
                50 blue marbles to win $51
                40 white marbles to lose $43

5. Which do you choose?
          I: 90 red marbles to win $51
                05 green marbles to lose $31
                05 white marbles to lose $33
      OR
          J: 85 red marbles to win $51
                05 blue marbles to win $45
                10 white marbles to lose $33

6. Which do you choose?
          K: 10 red marbles to win $53
                90 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          L: 20 blue marbles to lose $5
                80 white marbles to lose $43

7. Which do you choose?
          M: 91 red marbles to win $54
                03 blue marbles to win $51
                06 white marbles to lose $39
      OR
          N: 94 black marbles to win $54
                03 yellow marbles to lose $37
                03 purple marbles to lose $39

8. Which do you choose?
          O: 85 black marbles to win $55
                15 yellow marbles to win $5
      OR
          P: 95 red marbles to win $55
                05 white marbles to lose $38

9. Which do you choose?
          Q: 10 red marbles to win $53
                10 white marbles to lose $43
                80 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          R: 10 blue marbles to lose $5
                10 blue marbles to lose $5
                80 white marbles to lose $43

10. Which do you choose?
          S: 15 red marbles to win $5
                85 black marbles to lose $38
      OR
          T: 10 blue marbles to win $55
                90 white marbles to lose $38

11. Which do you choose?
          U: 85 red marbles to win $51
                05 red marbles to win $51
                05 green marbles to lose $31
                05 white marbles to lose $33
      OR
          V: 85 red marbles to win $51
                05 blue marbles to win $45
                05 white marbles to lose $33
                05 white marbles to lose $33

12. Which do you choose?
          W: 10 red marbles to win $53
                80 blue marbles to lose $5
                10 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          X: 10 blue marbles to lose $5
                80 blue marbles to lose $5
                10 blue marbles to lose $5 (i.e., lose $5 for sure)

13. Which do you choose?
          Y: 91 red marbles to win $54
                03 blue marbles to win $51
                03 green marbles to lose $39
                03 white marbles to lose $39
      OR
          Z: 91 black marbles to win $54
                03 pink marbles to win $54
                03 yellow marbles to lose $37
                03 purple marbles to lose $39

14. Which do you choose?
          a: 85 red marbles to win $55
                10 white marbles to win $5
                05 blue marbles to win $5
      OR
          b: 85 black marbles to win $55
                10 yellow marbles to win $55
                05 purple marbles to lose $38

15. Which do you choose?
          c: 90 red marbles to win $51
                05 yellow marbles to lose $31
                05 pink marbles to lose $33
      OR
          d: 85 black marbles to win $51
                05 blue marbles to win $45
                10 white marbles to lose $33

16. Which do you choose?
          e: 80 red marbles to win $53
                10 red marbles to win $53
                10 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          f: 80 red marbles to win $53
                10 blue marbles to lose $5
                10 blue marbles to lose $5

17. Which do you choose?
          g: 10 red marbles to win $5
                05 blue marbles to win $5
                85 white marbles to lose $38
      OR
          h: 10 black marbles to win $55
                05 purple marbles to lose $38
                85 green marbles to lose $38

18. Which do you choose?
          i: 91 red marbles to win $54
                03 blue marbles to win $51
                06 white marbles to lose $39
      OR
          j: 94 red marbles to win $54
                03 green marbles to lose $37
                03 white marbles to lose $39

19. Which do you choose?
          k: 90 red marbles to win $53
                10 white marbles to lose $43
      OR
          l: 80 red marbles to win $53
                20 blue marbles to lose $5

20. Which do you choose?
          m: 10 red marbles to win $5
                85 white marbles to win $5
                05 blue marbles to win $5 (i.e., win $5 for sure)
      OR
          n: 10 black marbles to win $55
                85 purple marbles to win $5
                05 green marbles to lose $38

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21. Have you ever read a scientific paper
(i.e., a journal article or book) on the theory of 
decision making or on the psychology of decision making?

          No. Never.            
      OR
          Yes, I have.


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name in the comments below, so we can identify the winner.
COMMENTS:

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