Decision Experiment with Losses

Decision-Making Experiment: Choices between Losing Gambles

This is a study of decision making in which you are asked to make choices between decisions that lead to losses. You cannot actually lose anything in this study, but you should imagine that you must make these decisions for real, and please respond as you would if you were making these decisions for real.

Sometimes, people are forced to make a choice between two bad alternatives. For example, if you do not buy theft insurance, someone might steal your car. If you do buy the insurance, you must pay out money to buy the insurance. If you don't buy the insurance and your car is stolen, you lose the value of your car. Decide first if you want to participate. Scroll down and look it over; it usually takes about 5-6 minutes.

Email address:

Country:
Age: You must be over 18 years to participate.
Are you Male or Female?
          Female
      OR
          Male

Education (in years).  
  If you are a college graduate, put 16.
  If you have a Ph.D., put 20.
Education:  Years.

Now, look at the first choice, No. 1, below.   Would you rather play: 
        A: fifty-fifty chance to lose either $100 or $0 (nothing), 
OR
        B: fifty-fifty chance to lose either $35 or $25.

Think of probability as the number of tickets in a bag containing 100 tickets, divided by 100. Gamble A has 50 tickets that say $100 and 50 that say $0, so the probability to lose $100 is .50 and the probability to get $0 is .50. If someone reaches in bag A, half the time they might lose $0 and half the time $100. But in this study, you only get to play a gamble once, so the consequence will be either $0 or a loss of $100. Gamble B's bag has 100 tickets also, but 50 of them say lose $25 and 50 of them say lose $35. Bag B thus guarantees a loss of at least $25, but the most you can lose is $35. Some will prefer A and others will prefer B. To mark your choice, click the button next to A or B. Notice that the dot next to No. 1 will empty and fill in the button next to your choice.

For each choice below, click the button beside the gamble you would rather play, if you were forced to choose between these unfavorable gambles.

1. Which do you choose? A: .50 probability to lose $100 .50 probability to lose $0 OR B: .50 probability to lose $35 .50 probability to lose $25 2. Which do you choose? C: .50 probability to lose $100 .50 probability to lose $0 OR D: .50 probability to lose $45 .50 probability to lose $35 3. Which do you choose? E: .20 probability to lose $100 .30 probability to lose $96 .50 probability to lose $50 OR F: .20 probability to lose $100 .30 probability to lose $62 .50 probability to lose $50 4. Which do you choose? G: .10 probability to lose $108 .50 probability to lose $12 .40 probability to lose $2 OR H: .10 probability to lose $108 .50 probability to lose $96 .40 probability to lose $2 5. Which do you choose? I: .90 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $14 .05 probability to lose $12 OR J: .85 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $90 .10 probability to lose $12 6. Which do you choose? K: .10 probability to lose $44 .10 probability to lose $40 .80 probability to lose $2 OR L: .10 probability to lose $98 .10 probability to lose $10 .80 probability to lose $2 7. Which do you choose? M: .91 probability to lose $99 .03 probability to lose $96 .06 probability to lose $6 OR N: .94 probability to lose $99 .03 probability to lose $8 .03 probability to lose $6 8. Which do you choose? O: .20 probability to lose $44 .80 probability to lose $10 OR P: .10 probability to lose $98 .90 probability to lose $10 9. Which do you choose? Q: .80 probability to lose $98 .20 probability to lose $40 OR R: .90 probability to lose $98 .10 probability to lose $10 10. Which do you choose? S: .80 probability to lose $110 .10 probability to lose $44 .10 probability to lose $40 OR T: .80 probability to lose $110 .10 probability to lose $98 .10 probability to lose $10 11. Which do you choose? U: .85 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $14 .05 probability to lose $12 OR V: .85 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $90 .05 probability to lose $12 .05 probability to lose $12 12. Which do you choose? W: .90 probability to lose $106 .05 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $12 OR X: .90 probability to lose $106 .05 probability to lose $52 .05 probability to lose $48 13. Which do you choose? Y: .91 probability to lose $99 .03 probability to lose $96 .03 probability to lose $6 .03 probability to lose $6 OR Z: .91 probability to lose $99 .03 probability to lose $99 .03 probability to lose $8 .03 probability to lose $6 14. Which do you choose? a: .95 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $12 OR b: .90 probability to lose $96 .10 probability to lose $48 15. Which do you choose? c: lose $1 for sure OR d: .01 probability to lose $100 .99 probability to lose $0 16. Which do you choose? e: lose $3 for sure OR f: .01 probability to lose $100 .99 probability to lose $0 17. Which do you choose? g: .05 probability to lose $96 .05 probability to lose $12 .90 probability to lose $3 OR h: .05 probability to lose $52 .05 probability to lose $48 .90 probability to lose $3 18. Which do you choose? i: lose $90 for sure OR j: .99 probability to lose $100 .01 probability to lose $0 19. Which do you choose? k: lose $96 for sure OR l: .99 probability to lose $100 .01 probability to lose $0 20. Which do you choose? m: .05 probability to lose $96 .95 probability to lose $12 OR n: .10 probability to lose $52 .90 probability to lose $12 ----------- 21. Have you ever read a scientific paper (i.e., a journal article or book) on the theory of decision making or on the psychology of decision making? No. Never. OR Yes, I have.

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